Based on URA flash estimates, Singapore private home prices continue to rise, up by 1.1% qoq in Q1 2024, despite slowing volumes. While private residential prices continue to hit record highs, the pace of price growth has slowed. As of H1 2024, private home prices are up by 2.5% ytd, compared to H1 2023 price growth (over the same period) of 3.1% ytd. Current pricing levels remains supported by strong holding power in the market amidst higher replacement costs and healthy household balance sheets.
In H1 2024, volumes are estimated to have fallen about 10% yoy, at about 8,600 to 8,900 units. This compares to about 9,509 units in H1 2023. Amidst still-high interest rates, cooling measures, steep price levels and a wider selection of new launches in the market, demand has turned cautious and selective. The performance of major launches (100 units and above) has slowed. 1 out of 6 major projects (17%) that were launched in Jan to May 2024, managed to sell more than half of their stock within their month of launch. This compares to the same time period (Jan-May 2023) last year, where 4 out of 7 major new launches (57%) sold more than half of their stock within their month of launch.
The increase in prices were driven by both landed and non-landed segments which saw price growth of 1.8% and 0.9% qoq respectively in Q2 2024. Landed prices remains supported by local upgrading aspirations, limited supply, and heightened construction costs.
For the non-landed market, the Core Central Region (CCR) fell slightly from -0.2% qoq in Q2 2024, a slight pullback after growing 3.4% in the prior quarter. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) saw growth of 2.2% and 0.3% qoq respectively. For H1 2024, CCR, RCR and OCR are up by 3.2%, 2.5% and 0.5% ytd respectively. Despite resilient underlying demand from HDB upgraders and investors, drawn to the OCR's relatively lower prices, OCR price growth is starting to moderate, following a robust appreciation in 2023. OCR prices grew by 13.7% in 2023, outperforming CCR and RCR growth of 1.9% and 3.1% yoy respectively.
Moving forward, we anticipate private home prices to grow by 1- 4% for the whole of 2024. We expect local demand for private housing to remain resilient, supported by still-low unemployment rates and strong household balance sheets, though this will be sapped by lower buyer affordability due to still-high interest rates and cooling measures. Baring new cooling measures and unforeseen economic shocks, overall sales volumes are expected to end at 18,000-20,000 units in 2024, compared to 19,044 units in 2023.
