Residential Market Commentary

SEPTEMBER UK HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

The UK economy has had a strong first half of year. 

Growth has been enabled by a significant easing in global inflationary pressures, though domestic pressures remain. As a result, on the 1st  of August, the MPC voted narrowly to cut the base rate from 5.25% to 5% after two months of CPI at 2%. At the time of the meeting, the tightness of the call, and messaging from the MPC seemed to suggest that there was still a lack of clarity, which may well hint at rates being held at the next meeting on the 19th of September.

Since the last meeting, inflationary data for June saw CPI annual growth increase to 2.2% in June from 2% in May. Upside pressures to inflation remain in the short term and are likely to drive up CPI away from the 2% target into late 2024 and early 2025.  

As for the housing market, buyer demand and enquiries increased in July, though house price growth remained subdued. House price growth is expected to remain modest given affordability pressures and the increased levels of stock on the market. 

MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

The residential market is extremely sensitive to interest rate rises and over the last couple of years mortgage rates have increased as a result. However, mortgage rates have started to decline, and following the first rate cut in August, we should expect this trend to continue, albeit at a slow pace (Bank of England External Link).

MORTGAGE APPROVALS

Mortgage approvals are a leading indicator for housing market demand. In July, mortgage approvals were at their highest since September 2022, with 61,985 mortgages approved – 2.3% above last month and 26.5% above the same time last year (Bank of England External Link). The RICS Residential Market Survey External Link also reported a positive (2%) net balance of new buyer enquiries in July, the first reading in four months that has been outside negative territory.

SALES

An estimated 90,630 sales completed in July 2024, marginally lower (-0.6%) than last month and 6.7% above the same time last year. However, sales remain 9.5% below pre-pandemic levels (July 2017-2019 average).

In August Zoopla External Link also reported higher sales activity than a year ago, with stock of homes for sale up 14% from the same time last year. The increase will improve buyer choice, which could lead to an increase in demand, in turn boosting sales activity.

HOUSE PRICES

Nationwide External Link reported a 0.2% seasonally adjusted monthly fall in house prices in August 2024, though the annual rate of house price growth increased slightly. Average prices rose by 2.4% year on year, up from the 2.1% seen in July, marking the fastest growth since December 2022.

AUGUST UK HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

Political stability following Labour’s election victory, paired with an improving economic environment, brings some optimism to the UK housing market. 
On 1st August, the Bank of England voted to bring down the base rate from 5.25% to 5.00% on a narrow margin of 5-4 committee members. While many expected this to be the case, this was by no means a foregone conclusion – with the minutes from the last meeting seeing plenty of mentions about the situation being ‘finely balanced’.  

With CPI at 2.0% in June for the second month in a row – albeit slightly above consensus expectations – the big barrier to rate cuts was likely to have been stubborn services inflation (more on that here). 

As for the housing market, buyer demand and sales activity declined in June, as affordability pressures, the summer slowdown, and the General Election muted activity levels. However, more homes are available for sale and house prices saw another modest increase in July. 

MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

The residential market is extremely sensitive to interest rate rises and over the last couple of years mortgage rates have increased as a result. However, there have been some early signs of mortgage rates starting to decline, and following the first rate cut in August, we should expect this trend to continue, albeit at a slow pace. For now, mortgage rates will continue to impact affordability, limiting buyer demand (Bank of England External Link).

MORTGAGE APPROVALS

Mortgage approvals are a leading indicator for housing market demand. In June there was a slowdown in demand with 59,976 mortgages approved, 0.3% below last month, and the third consecutive monthly decrease (although all of these have been modest). Approvals did however remain 11.7% above the same time last year (Bank of England External Link). The RICS Residential Market Survey External Link also reported a negative (-7%) net balance of new buyer enquiries in June, signalling a weakening in demand. 

SALES

Sales data lags mortgage approvals with transactions taking several months to complete. As a result, the sales data is only just showing a slowdown in demand. An estimated 91,370 sales completed in June 2024, 0.6% below last month, the first monthly decline since December 2023. 

However, in July Zoopla External Linkreported more homes for sale than any point in the last 6 years - in fact, the stock of homes for sale is 16% above the same time last year. An increase in new homes available for sale will improve buyer choice, which could lead to an increase in demand, in turn boosting sales activity. (HMRC External Link).

HOUSE PRICES

Nationwide External Link reported a 0.3% seasonally adjusted monthly increase in house prices in July 2024. Three consecutive small monthly increases have resulted in an uptick in annual house price growth, increasing to 2.1%.  Given affordability pressures and the increased levels of stock on the market, house price growth is expected to remain limited in the short term.

JULY UK HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

On 22nd May, the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a General Election for July 4th. At the end of June, the FT Poll Tracker suggests that Labour will attain 40.6% of the vote, with the Conservatives at 20.3%.

Most recent inflationary data for May saw CPI growth fall to 2.0%, hitting target for the first time in 3 years. Despite meeting the target, there are still concerns around services inflation, which impacted rate cut decisions at the June MPC meeting.

The last MPC meeting was on June 20th, when the Committee voted 7-2 to hold rates at 5.25%. The MPC has now voted to keep rates stable at 5.25% for seven consecutive meetings, with the latest meeting seeing little change in stance.

As for the housing market, buyer demand declined for the second consecutive month in May, as mortgage rates, the summer slowdown, and the pending election muted activity levels. House prices saw modest growth in June, a trend which is expected to continue given affordability pressures and the increased levels of stock on the market.

MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

The residential market is extremely sensitive to interest rate rises and over the last couple of years mortgage rates have increased. As we entered 2024, and interest rates peaked, mortgage rates had started to decline in anticipation of base rate cuts. However, in March, April and May 2024, mortgage rates experienced a small uptick following some uncertainty in softening timelines. Mortgage rates are still expected to fall later in the year, but for now they are limiting buyer demand (Bank of England).

MORTGAGE APPROVALS

Mortgage approvals are a leading indicator for housing market demand. In May there was a slowdown in demand with 59,991 mortgages approved, 1.4% below last month, and the second consecutive monthly decrease. Mortgage approvals were 19.2% above the same time last year but remain 8.2% below the pre-pandemic average (May 2017-2019 average) (Bank of England).

SALES

Sales data lags mortgage approvals with transactions taking several months to complete. As a result, sales data is still showing the increased demand witnessed earlier in the year as mortgage rates declined and homes available for sale increased. An estimated 91,290 sales completed in May 2024, 2.4% above last month and 17.2% above the same time last year. However, sales remain 7.9% below pre-pandemic levels (May 2017-2019 average) (HMRC).

HOUSE PRICES

Nationwide reported a 0.2% seasonally adjusted monthly increase in house prices in June 2024. Two consecutive monthly increases – albeit modest - have resulted in an uptick in annual house price growth, increasing to 1.5% from 1.3% the previous month.

JUNE UK HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

On 22nd May, the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a General Election for July 4th. At the time of writing, the FT Poll Tracker suggests that Labour would attain 44.4% of the vote, with the Conservatives at 23.7%.

The last MPC meeting was on May 9th, when the Committee voted 7-2 to hold rates at 5.25%. The MPC has now voted to keep rates stable at 5.25% for six consecutive meetings, with the May meeting seeing only a slight softening of stance.

Most recent inflationary data for April saw CPI growth fall sharply, and to the lowest levels since July 2021 – from 3.2% to 2.3%. Despite the significant falls, there was a surprise on the upside to 0.2 percentage points on the MPC’s forecast. This suggests that cutting of interest rates will be pushed back further than June.

As for the housing market, buyer demand was flat in April as mortgage rates limited movement in house prices and activity levels. The election is unlikely to impact those in the process of moving, but might stall those buyers who were contemplating an upcoming move. The natural slowdown over summer is therefore likely to start earlier than usual. House price growth is expected to remain modest given affordability pressures and the increased levels of stock on the market.

MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

The residential market is extremely sensitive to interest rate rises and over the last couple of years mortgage rates have increased. As we entered 2024, and interest rates peaked, mortgage rates had started to decline in anticipation of base rate cuts. However, in March and April 2024 mortgage rates experienced a small uptick following some uncertainty in softening timelines. Mortgage rates are still expected to fall later in the year, but for now they are limiting buyer demand (Bank of England External Link).

MORTGAGE APPROVALS

Mortgage approvals are a leading indicator for housing market demand. In April there was a slowdown in demand with 61,140 mortgages approved, down 0.2% on last month, the first monthly fall since September 2023. Mortgage approvals were 26% above the same time last year but remain 6.4% below the pre-pandemic average (April 2017-2019 average) (Bank of England External Link).

SALES

Sales data lags mortgage approvals with transactions taking several months to complete. As a result, sales data is still showing the increased demand witnessed earlier in the year as mortgage rates declined and homes available for sale increased. An estimated 90,430 sales completed in April 2024, 4.6% above last month and 9.8% above the same time last year. However, sales remain 10.1% below pre-pandemic levels (April 2017-2019 average) (HMRC External Link).

HOUSE PRICES

Nationwide External Link reported a 0.4% seasonally adjusted monthly increase in house prices in May 2024, following two consecutive monthly falls. A modest monthly increase resulted in an uptick in annual house price growth, increasing to 1.3% from 0.6% the previous month.

MAY UK HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

The MPC has now voted to keep rates stable at 5.25% at six consecutive meetings, with the voting 7 (on holding) to 2 (on reduction), highlighting a softening of stance from the MPC, and an increased likelihood in rate cuts in the short term – the next meeting is on 20th of June.

Most recent inflationary data for March saw CPI annual growth continue to fall – from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March. Nevertheless, inflation in the UK is still running higher than other advanced economies, with Eurozone inflation now at 2.4%.

The UK economy grew by 0.4% in March 2024, following continued growth in both January and February. Overall, this led to a growth in the first quarter of 2024 of 0.6%. The outlook for growth remains muted, with HM Treasury consensus of independent forecasters suggesting growth of 0.4% for 2024 – albeit with an improved outlook for inflation at 2.1% by the end of the year.

In truth, the inflationary pressures, energy pricing shocks, and tightening of monetary policy are still having an impact and will weigh on the economy certainly during the first half of 2024. There is likely to be continued pressure on businesses and subsequently employment, and the impact of increased mortgage rates may take a while to filter through.

Some early signs of optimism in the housing market have continued, with an uptick in mortgage approvals and completed sales. However, monthly house price growth did see modest falls in March and April, and mortgage rate reductions have stalled. This is a reminder that the market isn’t fully on the road to recovery, as affordability pressures remain.

MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

The residential market is extremely sensitive to interest rate rises and over the last couple of years mortgage rates have increased. As we enter 2024, and interest rates are thought to have peaked, mortgage rates had started to decline in anticipation of base rate cuts. For example, if you take a 2-year fixed mortgage with a 90% LTV, average mortgage rates peaked in August 2023 at 6.6%, falling to 5.25% in February 2024. However, in March and April 2024 mortgage rates experienced a small uptick, following some uncertainty rate cuts and a surge in buyer demand. However, mortgage rates are still expected to fall over the year, once rate cuts commence (Bank of England).

MORTGAGE APPROVALS

Mortgage approvals are a leading indicator for housing market demand. 60,383 mortgages were approved in February 2024, 7.7% above last month and 39.8% above the same time last year, showing a continued increase in housing market demand. However, mortgage approvals remain 7.3% below the pre-pandemic average (February 2017-2019 average) (Bank of England).

SALES

An estimated 84,200 sales completed in March 2024, 1.4% above last month, the third consecutive monthly increase. Sales however still remain 6.5% below the same time last year and 14.2% below pre-pandemic levels (March 2017-2019 average) (HMRC).

HOUSE PRICES

Nationwide reported a 0.4% seasonally adjusted monthly decrease in house prices in April 2024. Two consecutive monthly falls in house price growth have led to annual house price growth slowing to 0.6%, down from 1.6% last month.