Key takeaways from the latest 2024 Trends Radar report
Macroeconomic prospects
In 2024, Poland’s economy has returned to growth from a period of stagnation in 2023, with GDP growth expected to reach 3.1%. The average annual inflation rate is forecast to be around 4.0% in 2024 and remain below 5% in 2025. This is likely to prompt interest rate cuts that are anticipated to take place in the second half of 2025, providing a boost to the economy.
Investment market
Investor activity is gradually picking up. The investment volume for 2024 is projected to reach EUR 4.4 billion, representing a substantial 120% increase over 2023’s total. Core capital which is already planning acquisitions is expected to make a gradual comeback, according to Cushman & Wakefield. There is also strong momentum from CEE investors who are primarily targeting prime assets.
Office market
The office market continues to face the challenges of high development costs and the scarcity of prime land. Office construction activity is expected to remain subdued until the end of 2026, particularly in Warsaw. Despite the stagnation in new supply, occupier activity continues unabated, with leasing rates gradually improving, especially in central locations.
Retail market
Shopping centre turnover is expected to continue growing throughout 2025, particularly across categories such as health and beauty, restaurants, specialty grocery stores and services. The retail development pipeline is dominated by retail parks. Despite rising operating costs, prospects for shopping centres remain positive, driven by improving consumer sentiment and spending.
Industrial market
Demand for warehouse space remains robust amid a growing focus on operational efficiency. The sector is gradually moving forward to embrace automation and AI, anticipating significant advancements in warehouse technology by 2028. Despite the challenges of high costs, urban logistics remains an important growth area.
Living sector
Poland’s living sector has entered a period of stabilisation following a surge in property purchase prices and rental rates. Residential developers have stepped up their activity and secured more building permits than in 2023. The PRS development pipeline includes 30,000 units scheduled for delivery by 2026. Institutional investors are reconfiguring their portfolios, with some projects being put up for sale to individual buyers. Demand for rental apartments remains strong, with student and senior housing also attracting growing levels of interest.
ESG
Sustainability is a major factor shaping the real estate market today. While decarbonization and reducing emissions throughout the lifecycle of buildings remain the key focus, the elimination of hazardous substances from building materials used in the construction process is increasing in importance. Market participants are also awaiting new legislation that will facilitate the reuse of demolition materials.