Exploring Climate Risks Across the UK & Ireland – Sustainability Week 2024

Deep dive into exposure of climate risks across UK and Ireland.

Cities across the UK have identified the pressing need to prepare for the impacts of a changing climate. Climate risks represent a growing and significant financial concern, particularly within the built environment. When these risks are not properly understood and managed, they can result in stranded assets, diminished income streams for investors, and increased operational challenges for businesses. In the absence of proactive climate resilience measures, asset owners may see a decline in property values due to environmental risk exposure, while occupiers may face serious disruptions to business operations, challenges in maintaining safe and functional premises, and equipment damage resulting from extreme weather events.

Mitigating these risks requires a comprehensive and data-informed approach. Deliberate steps must be taken to assess exposure to climate risks, understand specific vulnerabilities, and implement robust resilience plans. This approach is critical in safeguarding assets, protecting revenue, and ensuring that properties remain functional and valuable under changing climate conditions.

Cushman & Wakefield has collaborated with Jupiter Intelligence, leveraging their data and expertise in climate science to provide a detailed overview of hazard exposures in cities across the UK and Ireland, which we review in this article against their resilience strategies. Through this partnership, we aim to support the real estate community in identifying specific risks and proactive strategies to reduce financial exposure and improve overall resilience in the face of climate change.

Assessing Exposure 

The impacts of climate risks will vary significantly worldwide, shaped by the baseline climate and typical weather patterns of each region. The UK and Ireland, which experience a temperate climate, generally see cool, wet winters and warm, wet summers. Extreme weather events such as intense heat, severe cold, prolonged drought, or high winds are rare, and conditions can shift rapidly. However, climate projections from the UK Met Office (CMIP 18) suggest that the UK will experience notable climate shifts, including:

• Drier Summers: A projected 60% decrease in summer precipitation, raising the risk of severe droughts.
• Rising Summer Temperatures: Average summer temperatures are expected to increase by between 1°C and 6°C by 2070, intensifying heat-related risks.
• Warmer Winters: Winter temperatures could rise by between 1°C and 4.5°C, impacting energy demand and winter agriculture.
• Increased Winter Precipitation: By 2070, winter precipitation levels may increase by up to 30%, heightening flood risks.

The anticipated changes in seasonal patterns—hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters—imply evolving risks that will require new adaptation and mitigation strategies. These shifts will demand attention to infrastructure resilience, water resource management, and measures to mitigate both flooding and drought impacts.

Using data from Jupiter Intelligence, we can see how the exposure to climate risks will change over time and in different carbon scenarios. In a high carbon scenario such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5¹ , we can see which hazards experience the biggest change in score from 2020 to 2050, indicating those which are likely to present the biggest risk in the future.

When looking at the “all hazards” combined change score, we can see that the city likely to experience the greatest change in hazard exposure is London, with an overall change score of 29. The other cities included in this study have an “all hazard” change score of less than 5, so a notable difference in the extent to which climate change impacts will manifest.

Focusing on Bristol, London, Dublin and Edinburgh to further examine how the changes in hazard exposure manifest for each hazard type, all cities show a noticeable decrease in the score for cold as the primary consequence of climate change.

This is expected given anticipated warming. In Bristol and Edinburgh, wind also shows the change score decreasing, indicating the risk will lessen over time. Heat is expected to increase in all cities, with London experiencing the biggest change. Interestingly, Bristol and Edinburgh experience the largest increase in hazard change score for precipitation, and Dublin for wildfires.

Resilience Planning

Once exposure and vulnerability are fully understood, the focus can shift to developing a resilience plan. This process includes recommending adaptation measures that are both practical and effective. Adaptation strategies should be considered on multiple levels, including:

• Policy and Operational Level: Implementing changes in management practices, operational procedures, and organizational policies to improve resilience.
• Building and Infrastructure Level: Incorporating design modifications, retrofits, and enhanced materials that strengthen the physical resilience of the asset.

Examples of adaptation measures for different hazards are illustrated in the figure below, demonstrating practical steps to mitigate risks.

To enhance urban resilience, local authorities across the UK and Ireland are developing comprehensive adaptation plans that outline tailored strategies and targets for mitigating climate impacts.

Bristol: One City Climate Strategy External Link offers a detailed framework addressing the city’s specific climate risks and vulnerabilities, outlining actions such as increasing tree coverage for resilience. This plan focuses on creating a sustainable and resilient urban environment by targeting key areas such as energy, transportation, and natural resource management, ensuring that Bristol’s adaptation efforts are well-aligned with local needs and climate projections.

London: Climate Resilience Review External Link assesses the key climate risks of flooding, heatwaves, and water scarcity, and outlines strategies such as investing in Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDs) to bolster resilience. Its goal is to guide integrated, city-wide actions that strengthen London’s infrastructure, health, and community adaptation to climate change.

Dublin: Climate Neutral Dublin 2030 External Link details the preparatory steps being taken for the projected effects of climate change, including flooding, sea-level rise, extreme weather, and drought. Dublin is committed to retrofitting buildings to improve energy efficiency and reduce vulnerabilities to heat and cold. This ambitious plan includes becoming climate-neutral by 2030, aiming to reduce the city’s environmental impact while protecting communities and infrastructure.

Edinburgh: Climate Ready Edinburgh Plan (2024-2030) External Link provides a roadmap to ensure Edinburgh is equipped to adapt by taking steps such as increasing urban green spaces, with more parks, green roofs, and tree-lined streets to help cool the city, improve air quality, and manage stormwater. It emphasises critical infrastructure, community engagement, and sustainable development practices, to foster a climate-resilient city that can thrive despite changing environmental conditions.

These city-specific adaptation plans exemplify the diverse approaches  to addressing climate change, illustrating proactive measures that ensure the resilience and sustainability of urban areas in the face of their unique environmental challenges and vulnerabilities. By understanding both the projected climate shifts and specific vulnerabilities at the asset level, targeted adaptation strategies to protect infrastructure, ensure operational continuity, and safeguard investments can be implemented.

Cushman & Wakefield’s sustainability team specialises in translating climate data into actionable strategies for the built environment. We help clients understand how climate change could affect their assets or portfolio and guide them in managing and disclosing climate-related risks and opportunities.

Explore our dynamic tool to understand the current hazard risk exposure in your city/region and how this risk varies across eight different hazard types. Our full Global Climate Risk Report, which includes our methodology, can be found here.

_{¹SSP5-RCP8.5, or "Fossil-fuelled Development," is a high-emission scenario projecting a 2.6–4.8°C global temperature rise by 2100 due to fossil fuel reliance and intense energy use. It represents extreme exposure but should be interpreted cautiously given modelling uncertainties.}